Xin Nian Kuai Le!

Wish everyone a Happy, Prosperous and Healthy New Year of the Ox!

May we overcome the challenges and succeed!

Gearing into 'Post-War' Mode

Respected Australian economic think tank, Access Economic's in its December 2008 business outlook paints a grim picture for the Australian economy in 2009 and its director, Chris Richardson said that the federal budget is 'buggered' and a recession is inevitable. The only comfort is that among the developed economies, Australia will experience a small recession as opposed to the deadlier ones overseas. And without fail China is in the centre role of Australia's economic quagmire.

Resource-rich states like WA and Qld will be hard hit as China's demand for resources soften while NSW has already joined the US and its in recession. Victoria will be next in line.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has returned from his holidays and was back to work this morning and on my twitter he posted: 'The Global Financial Crisis will create some tough challenges in 2009, but my priority remains the economy and jobs.'

I replied to his twit, 'Keep us afloat, Kev. Cheers'.

I am sure he and Treasurer Wayne Swan would be pulling their hairs and cringing over the gloomy economic outlook. Is there a way out of this mess?

What would I do if I am in Kev's shoes? My instinct tells me to shift the cabinet into a 'war-time mode' government in terms of policy execution and decision making process but managing the economy as if we are in a post-war mode; focusing on rebuilding the economy by spending on what is most needed by the country such as:

1. Improving public transportation;
   
2. Critical infrastruture expenditure;
3. Financial system reform/tweaking;
4. Fix the local credit market;
   
5. Encourage business and labour union partnership;
6. Lower taxes;
7. Education investment;
8. Increase defence budget; and
   
9. Provide incentive for community/grassroot economic self-reliance stimulus.

But whether the government is able to do so is another question that has to be answered before embarking on this plan. There are also other critical issues that have to be solved first such as budgetary constraints, funding, and federal-state cooperation. If the blockades are removed the end goals of this move should result in that the money spent would eventually reach the real economy and in the hands of the ordinary people and provide a new bedrock for an economic recovery.

Can we do it?

North Korea - China's new frontier? My View

In my previous post I posted up a news piece about Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's suggestion on China taking over North Korea if the country descends into political chaos following the demise of Kim Jong-Il. As an East Asian political junkie this piece of news of course roused my attention but not a new one.

I always wonder what are the ramifications if Kim Jong-Il dies in power leaving a power vacuum which I believe will be fiercely contested by the factions of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea and the military. Within the party there would be the nationalist faction and the pro-China faction fighting to fill up the power vacuum. On the other hand the powerful military, which Kim Jong-Il currently relies on for his power credibility under the Songun (Military First) policy, will seek the ruling reins as well which is very much unwanted by the international community for fear of launching an agressive stance to reunite the two Koreas by force. There could be a possible tie up between the Party's nationalist faction and the military to take control of Pyongyang. Beyond the borders of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the international community prefers a pro-China leadership for a very obvious reason: Stability.

It is envisioned that a post-Kim Jong-Il pro-China North Korea would follow the footstep of China's economic reform 30 years ago; slowly opening up its economy, allowing private enterprises to operate and eventually establish a socialist market economy (with Korean characteristics). The biggest stakeholder in this is of course, South Korea. Despite the fiery nationalistic streak in many South Koreans, the South Korean government of the day are pragmatic over its Northern siblings erring to China for reform inspirations.

South Korea cannot absord the North even if the option of confederation is chosen. The economic consequences would be severe and the lessons from the reunification of West and East Germany presents a clear case for the South not to proceed with a pre-mature reunfication.

However the biggest question is the process of the transition of power. Will there be a smooth power transition or a bloody power struggle between the factions and the military. Any possible power struggle will not be welcomed and if the country does descends into chaos, China is the only country capable of intervening and restoring control. Afterall China understands North Korea inside out, better than South Korea, and act as a gateworld to the world for this hermit communist nation.

If intervention is the option, many experts believe that China will take direct control of the country for many years and some even think that North Korea could eventually become another Chinese province. Not an entirely absurd scenario since China has its own ethnic Korean prefecture - Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin province bordering North Korea.

Japan would certainly love the idea of North Korea being absorbed by China as the threat by the North to rain missles on Japan will be eliminated. No wonder the firecely nationalistic Shintaro Ishihara, who dislikes China and the Koreas, put forward the idea for the Chinese to take North Korea into its fold.

What about my take? For the first time, I agree with Mr. Ishihara. Who wants trouble in the peninsula that could drag China, USA, Russia, South Korea and Japan when the world is trying to achieve peace in the Middle East, eradicate terrorism and solve the global economic crisis?

Previous Post: North Korea - China's new frontier?

North Korea - China's new frontier?

Bumped into this piece of news on Tokyo Governor, Shintaro Ishihara's suggestion on China taking over North Korea if the northern half of the Korean peninsula descends into political chaos:

by Staff Writers

Tokyo (AFP) Jan 13, 2009

Tokyo's outspoken governor Shintaro Ishihara said Tuesday that North Korea would be best taken over by China, allowing the impoverished hardline communist state to collapse peacefully.
Ishihara, who often provokes controversy with hawkish remarks, said six-way talks spearheaded by the United States had made little progress in ending North Korea's nuclear weapons drive or integrating it into the world.

"I think China's integration of North Korea would be the easiest solution, even for the United States. I suspect an underlying motive along this line already exists," Ishihara told a news conference.

"I wouldn't imagine that China would refuse the idea," he said.

Ishihara acknowledged that the idea would "probably" meet opposition in South Korea, which maintains hope of reunification with its communist neighbour after six decades divided by the Cold War's last frontier.

Koreans historically fought Chinese influence over the peninsula. Both Seoul and Pyongyang were angered several years ago when Beijing appeared to deny that parts of northeastern China were originally a Korean kingdom.

But Ishihara said that Seoul would benefit if North Korea became part of China.

"If South Korea agrees to the idea, I think that country (North Korea) would collapse naturally and it would bring back a civil society" instead of just dictatorship, he said.

Ishihara was speaking at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan alongside other regional governors who launched a group to pressure North Korea over its abductions of Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s to train spies.

The governors said they would lobby the Japanese government to do more to break a deadlock in a North Korean plan to reinvestigate the kidnappings.

Ishihara, 76, is an acclaimed novelist turned popular three-term governor of the world's biggest city.

China and the two Koreas have often bristled at Ishihara's brash remarks, including his calls for Japan to shed its pacifist constitution and his justifications for Japan's past invasions of Asia.

This idea is not new and a number of analysts have taken up this scenario as a possible event but it takes a loudmouth politican like Ishihara to bring the case into the mainstream spotlight.

If time allows I will write my opinion on this 'takeover' scenario.

Get touchy feely

It wasn't the first time that I was told that my official work correspondences can be quite 'official', 'technical' or to the extent of almost being a legalistic matter, as if I was writting a case law.

Today I was told to tone down by a partner in the firm who was exposed to my correspondences with third parties for the first time.

"Ben, you aren't wrong but just try to keep it......you know...friendly...touchy feely ....", he smiled and gave a wink.

"Yes, Sir!", I stood at attention and saluted. No, the salutation didn't happen but it could....really could have happened. I just have to get 'touchy feely'.

Attack is the best defence

The holiday season is finally over and we back in stark reality. The global financial crisis is dragging Australia deeper by the day. Thursday will see the official employment figures but job ads in December sank to lowest on record, suggesting that unemployment will rise to as much as 11%. With the service sector forming 70% of the economy, this spells disaster.

There is no time to lose in implementing quick and effective policies and measures that could prop up the economy before things turn awry that economic self-restructuring is the only possible antidote.

Despite the government's $10 billion stimulus package given to families and seniors to spend during the holidays, IMF said the government needs to do more - more 'real' money to be pumped into the economy to help businesses to stay afloat. With cash already given out so what is next?

Tax cut. Yes, Wayne Swan is leaving the option open to bring forward tax cuts which will involve a broader taxpayer pool to have extra cash to spend. In fact the $10 billion stimulus package was in essense like a cash tax refund or more like cash tax rebates for Senior Australian Tax Offset and bonus Family Tax Benefits.

Although ratings agency, Standards & Poor said that Australia is strong enough to withstand the global crisis, we must however adopt a pre-emptive position before the problems come attacking us.

Attack is the best defence for now.

Pariah Stock

Monday blues hit and didn't feel like working though I still had to but punctuated with constant checking on the stockmarket throughout the day to keep me sane. The market shed 1.4% today following a string of bad news on the world and local front. The resource sector took a rather big hit right after the opening bell.

On the contrary a particular stock I bought three months ago was acting like a salmon today and for the past week, swimming against the tide. To date it gained 36.6% in value although it took a big battering in December dropping to historic lows. I suspect someone or some group is pushing the price up as everytime shares on sale were quickly snapped up.

The stock is considered a pariah in the market for having lost more than 90% in market value from its 52 weeks high, and when I told a senior adviser from an associate financial firm that I bought this stock, he laughed and instead advised me to buy the big 4 banks as they were in value. Well if I'd bought the bank shares back then my portfolio value today will still be in the red. He is the expert anyway and I don't doubt his advice as he see it as a long term investment.

Yes, I am speculating and bought a pariah stock which performed rather unpariah so far. I hope my analysis turns out to be correct.

Maybe it will become pariah again but perhaps by then I would have cashed in rather unpariah... oh well...who knows... and who cares if its pariah or not if you can make the money..... (fingers crossed)

Financial Self-Reliance Society

Today I woke up wondering how can we get through the economic crisis. How am I going to help myself if I get retrenched? How can I help my family members and friends if they are affected. Let's forget about government assistance. Consider it that we don't qualify for it. How exactly can we get through the tough times?

In the case of economic crisis and without government assistance I believe the community should come together and form a Financial Self-Reliance Society which members of the community together form a society with the aim of helping each other financially.

I believe that many will shoot down such a suggestion for not being viable but believe me, it can work because such societies do exist. Think Australian credit unions and informal finance groups in Asia.

For instance, the community of a suburb forms a Financial Self-Reliance Society which in essence act like a bank but with a community focus on helping members to weather through the tough times. When the commercial banks stop lending and if without government assisstance, members can apply for soft loans from their society such as paying off necessity expenses. But one critical aspect must be emphasised is that the society should run for profits. Yes, interests should be charged on the loans albeit at much lower rate than the commercial finance rates.

Running for profit is to bring home the point to borrowers/members that the society does not exist to provide free lunches to them. The society is formed only to assist members financially, and other auxilliary assistances, that they otherwise wouldn't be able to from outside sources.

But how is this possible?

It is not impossible and of course it takes up time and resouces but the most important aspect is participation and financial contribution by members who are cashed up. Inspirations can be drawn from the Chinese clan associations across South China and the Chinese diaspora which have became history in today's world. But back in the old days Chinese immigrants in host countries were usually discriminated upon by the government and local population and so clan associations were formed to assist members from financing to organising funerals. Through such organisations did they manage to get through the toughest of the tough times and eventually settled in the host countries often with substantial economic powers.

One lesson we can learn from these associations is that when we are united we can pull through adversity. Although the hey days of the clan associations are long gone but another form of financial assistance group was born and took their positions, known as informal finance in the academic circle. I am not referring to loan sharking.

The type of informal finance I am referring to is a group of people coming together to pool their money and loan that money to a member of the group who need it most by bidding up the interest rate although often the base rate is way lower than commercial rates and not to mention on a much better term. And I can tell you that it works for having seen how the entire process functioned. Families in dire need of cash flow to get through their financial crisis resorted to such informal finance since the banks or government wouldn't help and turning to loan sharks will only compound their financial problems.

This is why I believe that a Financial Self-Reliance Society can work. Imagine there are such societies in every community council we would see a society becoming self-reliant and innovative without resorting to taxpayers money. The system would work even better if there is government support by providing incentives for such societies to be formed. Add in a bit of regulation and providing expert support I believe such a system can flourish sparing the government time, effort and resources to focus on other critical areas of the economy.

So far my suggestion on how we, as a community, can help ourselves during tough economic times is only surfing on the skinny but I will spare you the details of the nitty-gritty but nonetheless it is a 'why not idea'.



“I believe that I was lucky to have suffered. Some people don’t realise that in suffering there is great potential, because if you are deprived for any reason, politically, socially financially, or otherwise, and if you set your mind in the right direction, you will find that the only way to survive is for you to excel, by being better.”

- Talal Abu-Ghazaleh

There is a Chinese Saying which literally means "Turning adversity into opportunities" and I believe yes, we can.

Feeling the heat

Taking the lunch break to release some pent-up feelings.

In what was a casual conversation with a director 2 days ago about seconding me to another firm turns out to be rather serious matter.

Already two key partners have endorsed the move and the management will soon begin the process of sending me to a financial advisory firm to do...real financial advisory work. I welcome the move as this allows me to work in a field I am very passionate about but at the same time I feel the pressure to perform and excel in both firms.

It also means more workload, juggling back and forth between the two firms which in turns require me to up a notch on my time management and productivity tracking.

It is always easy to dream of doing something you want to do but when the real thing hits you its another story altogether. I reckon I need to chill out and instead of thinking of the looming pressure I will try to take it as a looming constructive challenge.

Alright, I need some fresh air.

Be like water

Being long on the stock market any upswings will certainly bring me a smile. Markets around the world have been rather resilent since 2009 trading started, shrugging off a slew of negative economic data and news...so I am still erring on the side of caution because I suspect behaviourial tweeking is at play more than 'fundamentals' or ... could it be that the markets have already priced in the risks and lower profit guidance?

Who cares... throw out the books and journals....

Like Bruce Lee said, "Be like water....."

The problem of time

I didn't make any concrete resolutions for this year because most of the time I forget about them so naturally. So I just let it be and see how it goes for this year but gave myself a general parameter on what I should improve.

Mostly to do with time management and prioritising tasks as there are more than enough jobs on my plate that I could possibly chew. Apart from doing taxation and auditing work I am also loaded with projects on IT business strategies, corporate strategic foresight and business advisory all of which requires considerable amount of brainwork - lateral thinking, analysis, critical reflection and the sorts.

The only problem is time. A partner popped into my workstation this morning with a stack of technology magazines and want me to digest the highlights and information and then possibly develop new or improve current IT business strategies for the firm and clients. On top of that is a backlog of books on loan to me by the same partner who wants me to pick up on strategic foresight.

The only problem is time. The projects excite me because the work process is dynamic with a lot of thinking and analyses involved but I've yet to produce solid results of revenue-generating ideas as I didn't put much priority into them. Ideas are in my head but it takes time to put into black and white formally. Meetings are coming up soon in which I've to present my ideas to the partners and clients. Racing against time to produce quality work and ideas.

The only problem is time...and also put on more thinking caps....

Class of Differentiation

“So how’s the dating going on?” I asked while chewing a beef jerky and holding a nice cold beer.

Kuan sipped his beer and reluctantly answered, “Aiya...don’t talk about it lah...”

“Why? What’s wrong? Come on man...tell me....”

A long time friend, Kuan, came to Melbourne recently for a holiday and we met up one night to have our buddy beer session and he poured out his latest dating experience in which he’d hit the wrong type of girl described as a entirely different class altogether.

Six months ago Kuan got a job as an office assistant after quitting his previous job as a DVD salesman. He thought he would head no where if he stayed in his previous job and decided to upgrade himself for a better future and society standing. He fell for Melissa, a marketing executive in the company, who was friendly and nice to him. Kuan believed that she genuinely treated him as a friend.

“I thought I had a chance loh”, Kuan explained, “She was very nice to me and we even went out for a few times for lunch and dinner. Not only nice but pretty too. The whole package is very different from my previous girl friends. She’s like an angel!”

“Sure or not?”

“101% guaranteed!”

“Why extra 1%”, I asked in jest but with a deadpan face, “Anyway...and then what happened?” Another beer bottle I sat and listened to his story attentively.

“So I tried kaoing (courting) her loh but got rejected saying that I am not her cup of tea. Actually I know why wan...because I am like an Ah Beng (Bogan) mah....” he sighed and drank up his half bottle of beer.

I could empathise with Kuan’s story as it wasn’t just a failed love story but more of a class distinction that is getting increasingly prevalent in the urban centres of Malaysia, especially among the Chinese population. Five years ago I wrote an article on the phenomenon of a segment of Malaysian society which I called it the “The Rise of Anglo-Malaysians”, a group of Malaysians who adopt the English Language as their lingua franca instead of their native tongues. It is not difficult to find Malaysians of Chinese, Indian and to a limited extent, Malay heritage who speak English primarily in their daily lives.

Very much like in Singapore the Chinese Malaysian population is generally divided into two groups – Chinese speaking and English speaking of which the latter is more prevalent in the larger cities and the former in the smaller towns and rural areas. In the cities, the Chinese speaking group is still the majority but the younger generation, who are increasingly becoming English speaking due to higher education and the internet, are fast catching up in numbers.

Kuan and Melissa is a classic story of the distinctions of the two different groups of Chinese Malaysians. The heart of the differentiation lies with the perceptions of each group has for each other. The Chinese speaking group views their English speaking brothers and sisters as being snobbish and bananas (Caucasian wannabe). This group hold great pride in their Chinese language ability and take themselves as champion of Chinese culture.

Uncultured, rude, loud and unsophisticated are some of the impressions hold by the English speaking Chinese for the Chinese speaking counterparts. There are some like Jed Yoong who go at great lengths to give cause to close down Chinese schools entirely. While reading her blog I suddenly discovered that I am an inner city ghetto member just because I came from Bukit Bintang which many associate it as a Chinese speaking heartland littered with Chinese hawkers stalls, triads, pirated DVDs and prostitution.

The above, I must emphasis, are just some of the very general examples of the contrasts but are nonetheless valid starting points for comparisons.

Whether Melissa and Kuan failed or managed to work it out because of their different backgrounds should not be the main cause for such prospective relationship. A relationship, I believe, should be the domain of matching compatibility and personality. But the pressures from society are increasingly influencing younger Chinese Malaysian girls to look for English speaking Chinese Malaysian boys as their partners, which they believe are better in terms of ability to provide material comfort, status and have more mutual respect for ladies.

It would be nice if people could remove general stereotyping but that is the reality in which perception is king. It doesn’t matter if you a very nice Chinese speaking person but the initial impressions the person is likely to conjure are loud, uncultured and unsophisticated and among others not because they really are but the general stereotype imposed by society.

Sometimes I wonder whether such gaps exist because of inferiority complex. For instance the Chinese speaking group being viewed as loud and crude because Chinese dialects are colloquially spoken as such, but there are many English speaking peers who do not view and in fact even embrace the Korean language which is also sound very loud and crude. Is this because Korean entertainment is cool and hip? Could be as we can see how American media and entertainment influenced youths around the world. Madonna was Goddess, Micheal Jackson was King, McDonalds preferred over Char Siu Bao and etc.

I remember in the Singaporean movie, ‘I Not Stupid’, Fiona Xie played a snobbish teenager who openly declared in her essay that she wants to be a Caucasian and despise being a Chinese. I was once in the shoes of that teenager. I loved GunsNRoses, hated learning Chinese and spoke with an American accent as a very young boy. It wasn’t until I was 13 that started to embrace my Chinese heritage and even picked up the Hakka dialect to communicate with my grandparents. Today I still can’t read and write Chinese but could speak fluently.

For many years I was being called as an Ah Beng or Chinaman (Hokkien-Chinese term for a Bogan) just because of the area I came from. “What? You do not know how to read Chinese? Come on! You were from Bukit Bintang!” are some of the remarks I get occasionally and I got this remark because I do not know how to sing Chinese songs during a Karaoke session recently. They even thought that I was acting and trying to be ‘English speaking’. Once perceptions deeply ingrained are hard to remove from one’s head.

With already half a dozen of beers downed, I advised Kuan “Look at you. Look at your style and honestly you are not super lengchai. The way you speak and the stuff you like. So Ah Beng! If you want girls like Melissa you have to do something about yourself, brother. Girls like her will get turned off, you know?”

“Then how?” he asked.

“Put your leg down from the chair and eat your peanuts nicely. We are out of the DVD days on the street. Unless you find someone who is on your level”

“But I am very nice to her leh and not like other guys who play play outside”

“So what face the reality man...” and I downed the last bottle of beer.

To become a cat

The city was rather silent for an early Saturday morning. The air was unseasonally cold as I stood on the balcony observing the night skyline. Quiet and peaceful and third day into 2009.

With Monday approaching I will be joining millions of people around the world in yet another round of rat race. A race to earn a salaried living. Some might dread the Monday while others might welcome it with much enthusiam. A new beginning or the same ol' again?

A pick up in wind chill heightened the question lingering in me for the past few days - A new beginning, an improved year or the same ol' again? This in turn raise the question whether I will be the same ol' or an improved rat in this rat race. A race that is getting increasingly cut throat and 'dangerous' in the current economic climate.

Can the answers be in the form of being in the right place, in the right time and among the right people in order to be at the top of the game? Maybe, but this raise another question - How? Luck?

I wonder. But such questions wouldn't exist if my aspiration of what I want to be and what I want to achieve are lower. Then perhaps I would lead a much simpler and contended life enjoying the basic necessities and eventually be just another ordinary person in the future with a stable job, a house with mortgage, a loving wife, have kids, annual holiday planned and budgeted for over a year, retire with my superannuation and play golf weekly.

Rather simple, straightforward and that could be the story of my rat life. But no, this is not what I want.

Can I have another story instead? Or is it that a life story is only written by circumstances? More questions.

I looked up to the clear night sky and wondered whether is this how a journey of life should be? Dictated chiefly by circumstances and self-effort only plays a supporting role?

I then imagined myself high up in the sky looking down the cityscape and beyond. It was beautiful. I saw the laneways, roads, boulevards and freeways criss-crossing and meandering over the land. Those roads were built by men and they managed to built them with the help of a map which is just an image from the above. Clear and precise where the roads can be built to expand, to reach and to connect.

What if I have a map of my life? Can I do likewise what those urban planners do?

Why not?

I went back to my room, spread across a piece of paper and drew a stickman in the middle representing myself right now and another one at the top of what I want to be. The two stickmen are connected by a straight line representing the road in which the journey I want to embark must be travelled on.

So I drew a very basic map of my intended life but this wasn't enough. I needed to compose stories to complement the map. Three stories came up with its own distinct plots.

Story 1: I achieved my goals and became a cat.
Story 2: I am just another another rat.
Story 3: How I became a dirty and hungry rat.

So my life moving forward could be any one of the three stories. I can clearly see the possibilities of how each story can become reality provided if I do certain things and of course the influence of circumstances.

Each story has a basic premise of the following:

I am a tax accountant, I run a small investment fund and have ambitions for great wealth, power and to be a who's and who's in the corporate and perhaps, political scene. I hold a post-graduate degree. I am aware of current affairs and an innate understanding of financial markets. I am a silent observer of details.

Then from the basic premise I compose plots based on:

1) Became a cat - how? by exploiting my what I am, what I have, my eccentricity, embrace change and pounce on opportunities.
2) Just another rat - how? by taking things easy, happy with what I am and what I have.
3) A dirty and hungry rat - how? by being complacent, joining the wrong crowd, resist reform and losing hope.

The above are just the skinnies as each plot has to take into account of the catalyst, facts and circumstances, and what-if scenarios, or in a more technical fashion borrowed from Peter Schwartz, the factors of Driving Force, Predetermined Elements, and Critical Uncertainties. Let's not forget the power of imagination which is one of the most critical building block of a good story.

Now I am aware of the possibilities of what and how my life could turn out in the future. I am now more aware of certain signs, actions, reactions and non-actions that could possibly lead me to one of the three stories. It is almost a case of the best way of knowing the future is to create your own future.

I've composed three possible stories of my life which act as my roadmap to what I want to become, A Cat.

At the very least I have started to write my own stories. Wars and battles aren't won just by sheer brute force and luck but by having stories composed - Strategies.

I want to be cat and not a rat and I can't just sit and wait or merely dream to become one.

You are what you think you are but you are not what you think you are unless you do it.

I have embraced 2009 by taking charge of my life story and try not to lose my wanted plot.