In my previous post I posted up a news piece about Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's suggestion on China taking over North Korea if the country descends into political chaos following the demise of Kim Jong-Il. As an East Asian political junkie this piece of news of course roused my attention but not a new one.
I always wonder what are the ramifications if Kim Jong-Il dies in power leaving a power vacuum which I believe will be fiercely contested by the factions of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea and the military. Within the party there would be the nationalist faction and the pro-China faction fighting to fill up the power vacuum. On the other hand the powerful military, which Kim Jong-Il currently relies on for his power credibility under the Songun (Military First) policy, will seek the ruling reins as well which is very much unwanted by the international community for fear of launching an agressive stance to reunite the two Koreas by force. There could be a possible tie up between the Party's nationalist faction and the military to take control of Pyongyang. Beyond the borders of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the international community prefers a pro-China leadership for a very obvious reason: Stability.
It is envisioned that a post-Kim Jong-Il pro-China North Korea would follow the footstep of China's economic reform 30 years ago; slowly opening up its economy, allowing private enterprises to operate and eventually establish a socialist market economy (with Korean characteristics). The biggest stakeholder in this is of course, South Korea. Despite the fiery nationalistic streak in many South Koreans, the South Korean government of the day are pragmatic over its Northern siblings erring to China for reform inspirations.
South Korea cannot absord the North even if the option of confederation is chosen. The economic consequences would be severe and the lessons from the reunification of West and East Germany presents a clear case for the South not to proceed with a pre-mature reunfication.
However the biggest question is the process of the transition of power. Will there be a smooth power transition or a bloody power struggle between the factions and the military. Any possible power struggle will not be welcomed and if the country does descends into chaos, China is the only country capable of intervening and restoring control. Afterall China understands North Korea inside out, better than South Korea, and act as a gateworld to the world for this hermit communist nation.
I always wonder what are the ramifications if Kim Jong-Il dies in power leaving a power vacuum which I believe will be fiercely contested by the factions of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea and the military. Within the party there would be the nationalist faction and the pro-China faction fighting to fill up the power vacuum. On the other hand the powerful military, which Kim Jong-Il currently relies on for his power credibility under the Songun (Military First) policy, will seek the ruling reins as well which is very much unwanted by the international community for fear of launching an agressive stance to reunite the two Koreas by force. There could be a possible tie up between the Party's nationalist faction and the military to take control of Pyongyang. Beyond the borders of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the international community prefers a pro-China leadership for a very obvious reason: Stability.
It is envisioned that a post-Kim Jong-Il pro-China North Korea would follow the footstep of China's economic reform 30 years ago; slowly opening up its economy, allowing private enterprises to operate and eventually establish a socialist market economy (with Korean characteristics). The biggest stakeholder in this is of course, South Korea. Despite the fiery nationalistic streak in many South Koreans, the South Korean government of the day are pragmatic over its Northern siblings erring to China for reform inspirations.
South Korea cannot absord the North even if the option of confederation is chosen. The economic consequences would be severe and the lessons from the reunification of West and East Germany presents a clear case for the South not to proceed with a pre-mature reunfication.
However the biggest question is the process of the transition of power. Will there be a smooth power transition or a bloody power struggle between the factions and the military. Any possible power struggle will not be welcomed and if the country does descends into chaos, China is the only country capable of intervening and restoring control. Afterall China understands North Korea inside out, better than South Korea, and act as a gateworld to the world for this hermit communist nation.
If intervention is the option, many experts believe that China will take direct control of the country for many years and some even think that North Korea could eventually become another Chinese province. Not an entirely absurd scenario since China has its own ethnic Korean prefecture - Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin province bordering North Korea.
Japan would certainly love the idea of North Korea being absorbed by China as the threat by the North to rain missles on Japan will be eliminated. No wonder the firecely nationalistic Shintaro Ishihara, who dislikes China and the Koreas, put forward the idea for the Chinese to take North Korea into its fold.
What about my take? For the first time, I agree with Mr. Ishihara. Who wants trouble in the peninsula that could drag China, USA, Russia, South Korea and Japan when the world is trying to achieve peace in the Middle East, eradicate terrorism and solve the global economic crisis?
Previous Post: North Korea - China's new frontier?
No comments:
Post a Comment