Thursday, September 18, 2008

Carnage

The topic over dinner was all about the current US financial market meltdown and judging from the current flux of mess, it looks more likely to become a global financial meltdown.

In what was supposed to be a dinner of four turned out to be three as one friend just became redundant earlier in the afternoon which naturally spoilt her day and appetite. It seems like the meltdown have hit the shores down under. Even Macquarie wasn't spared - shedded 20% in market value.

The friend was an operation officer in a hedge fund company.

The other two friends are finance academics from Melbourne University and they are not optimistic about the state of affairs. Of course.

"First to go are those from the operations, next are Last In First Out", one of them said, referring that backroom people would always be the first line of cut followed by the professionals who came in late but first to be out. Only the experienced ones will be kept during such times.

Already there are leaks that some of the major Australian financial companies are putting a hold on their graduate recruitment drive next year. In fact those who have been recruited were told that their official intake might be delayed. For how long? don't know.

It would take some time for the whole financial mess to be cleaned up before things start picking up again and this could take at least two years, if not more.

Despite the carnage there is some silver lining. Like I said before, it is always a good time to buy shares during bear market or financial downturn.

Over pasta, fettucini, chicken main and calamari, the three of us agreed that we would all be rich men in the future if we can afford to buy the whole index now, sit on them and wait for a few years.

Perhaps index-tracking ETFs could be an alternative entry.

Only if we could afford.

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